THE RECORD · PA-VR · EIGHT EPISODES · 2015 – CURRENT CYCLE
The Record
The Record is the historical audit trail of PRIORAXIS. It shows how the PA Engine — formally the PRIORAXIS Value Read (PA-VR) — behaved across Bitcoin’s cycles since the index era began — the earlier era is shown as pre-coverage — using the same frozen methodology that runs live today. Nothing has been recalculated to improve past results; each episode is presented as the model would have classified it at the time.
Rather than asking whether the exact top or bottom was called, The Record answers a different question: what environment was the market in when the biggest opportunities and risks developed? The zones mark accumulation, elevated risk, and distribution phases — not individual price turning points.
Each entry shows the episode, the zone entered, when, how far from the eventual cycle extreme where one is confirmed, and a verdict stating what the reading meant in context. Some episodes reached Deep Value months before the final low. Where a reading fell short of the instrument’s own claim, the row is flagged. Those flags are on this page too; that is the point of it.
The current cycle is shown but not graded. A cycle can only be evaluated once its outcome is known, and grading it now would be a prediction — which this page does not do.
The Record is not a collection of predictions. It is a permanent reference showing how the model has behaved, so you can assess its consistency, strengths, and limitations yourself.
Entries appear as Mondays are recorded; the Engine’s history opens with the verdict.
| Episode | Zone entered | Date | Vs. the extreme | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 cycle low | Deep Value | ◌ pre-coverage — before the index era begins | ||
| 2017 cycle top | Distribution | ✓ read the extreme ⚑ provisional — warm-up window | ||
| 2018–19 bear entry | Deep Value | 2018-06-25 | 189 days before the low — and held at it | ✓ read the extreme accumulating ~6 months into a falling market — an accumulation band, not a bottom-timer → explainer #3 |
| March 2020 | Deep Value | ✓ read the extreme | ||
| April 2021 top | Distribution | ✓ read the extreme | ||
| November 2021 top | Elevated | ✓ read the extreme ⚑ read Elevated, not full Distribution | ||
| November 2022 low | Deep Value | 2022-10-03 | 42 days before the low | ✓ read the extreme |
| 2024–25 cycle | Elevated at the 2025-09-29 high · one week at Distribution 2025-07-14 | 2025-09-29 | not computed: no confirmed extreme | ◔ not graded — cycle in progress |
The most recent cycle is shown but not graded — a top can only be confirmed after the fact, and this cycle is still in progress. We show what the instrument read (Elevated, briefly Distribution in mid-2025) without claiming it marked the top; grading it now would be a prediction, which we don’t do.