THE RECORD · PA-VR · EIGHT EPISODES · 2015 – CURRENT CYCLE
The Record
The Record is the historical audit trail of PRIORAXIS. It shows how the PA Engine — formally the PRIORAXIS Value Read (PA-VR) — behaved across Bitcoin’s cycles since the index era began — the earlier era is shown as pre-coverage — using the same frozen methodology that runs live today. Nothing has been recalculated to improve past results; each episode is presented as the model would have classified it at the time.
Rather than asking whether the exact top or bottom was called, The Record answers a different question: what environment was the market in when the biggest opportunities and risks developed? The zones mark accumulation, elevated risk, and distribution phases — not individual price turning points.
Each entry shows the episode, the zone entered, when, how far from the eventual cycle extreme where one is confirmed, and a verdict stating what the reading meant in context. Some episodes reached Deep Value months before the final low. Where a reading fell short of the instrument’s own claim, the row is flagged. Those flags are on this page too; that is the point of it.
The current cycle is shown but not graded. A cycle can only be evaluated once its outcome is known, and grading it now would be a prediction — which this page does not do.
The Record is not a collection of predictions. It is a permanent reference showing how the model has behaved, so you can assess its consistency, strengths, and limitations yourself.
Entries appear as Mondays are recorded; the Engine’s history opens with the verdict.
| Episode | Zone entered | Date | Vs. the extreme | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 cycle low | Deep Value | ◌ pre-coverage — before the index era begins | ||
| 2017 cycle top | Distribution | ✓ read the extreme ⚑ provisional — warm-up window | ||
| 2018–19 bear entry | Deep Value | 2018-06-25 | 189 days before the low — and held at it | ✓ read the extreme accumulating ~6 months into a falling market — an accumulation band, not a bottom-timer → explainer #3 |
| March 2020 | Deep Value | ✓ read the extreme | ||
| April 2021 top | Distribution | ✓ read the extreme | ||
| November 2021 top | Elevated | ✓ read the extreme ⚑ read Elevated, not full Distribution | ||
| November 2022 low | Deep Value | 2022-10-03 | 42 days before the low | ✓ read the extreme |
| 2024–25 cycle | Elevated at the 2025-09-29 high · one week at Distribution 2025-07-14 | 2025-09-29 | not computed: no confirmed extreme | ◔ not graded — cycle in progress |
The most recent cycle is shown but not graded — a top can only be confirmed after the fact, and this cycle is still in progress. We show what the instrument read (Elevated, briefly Distribution in mid-2025) without claiming it marked the top; grading it now would be a prediction, which we don’t do.
The design of our backtests is published before they run, timestamped, and kept whether the result flatters us or not. Check the documents and their proofs yourself →